The probability of trash

An interpretation of beach-litter survey results using the Beta - Binomial conjugate model

Version 1, status unpublished and in progress

Beach litter survey results are considered from the standpoint of risk and a simple probabilistic model. The Beta - Binomial conjugate model is used to identify the probability of finding a feminine hygiene product (FHP) on the shores of Lake Geneva, Switzerland. The model is then used to develop a sampling strategy in Geneva that maximizes the chances of finding an FHP at the next survey.


Above: Lake Geneva 2015-2021: The probability of finding at least one feminine hygiene product at a beach litter survey at the end of each survey period.

This is a collaboration and is self funded by the co-authors.